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The HongCOMM Survey of Hong Kong Baptist University announces survey results regarding 2012 Chief Executive election Leung Chun-ying received 30% support, much more than Henry Tang Ying-yen
The latest survey of the HongCOMM Survey of Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU) showed that, among the four candidates for the next Chief Executive election, former Executive Councilor Leung Chun-ying has a comfortable lead in the public opinion with 30.1% of the respondents expressing support for him, while the former Chief Secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen is following with 17.2% support. The New People's Party chairwoman Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee and Democratic Party chairman Albert Ho Chun-yan are far behind with respectively 5.7% and 1.9% support. 16.3% of the respondents did not want to support any of the four, while 28.8% of those who were interviewed could not offer an opinion (See table 1). While Leung and Tang have formally announced their candidacy, Ip and Ho have not.
The statistics come from HongCOMM Survey, a media, web and opinion research lab under the Centre for Media and Communication Research at HKBU. From 1st December to 4th December, HongCOMM Survey researchers interviewed through telephone 810 randomly selected adult residents of Hong Kong. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%.
Leung's supporting team slightly better than that of Tang's
Since Leung's and Tang's announcement last month to run for the election, figures from various sectors have declared their support. Hong Kong residents appear ambivalent about either candidate's supporting team, giving Tang's team slightly lower than Leung's team. On a 0-10 scale, residents gave Leung's team 5.47 points and Tang's team 5.07 points (see table 2).
Since their announcement, residents' impression of Leung improved but impression of Tang turned worse
Compared with before Leung announced his decision to run for the election, 30.9% of those surveyed had an improved impression of him, while only 5.7% had a worsened impression. 43.1% had a similar impression before and after his announcement (see table 3).
On the other hand, more people had a worsened impression of Tang compared with before he announced his decision to run for the election (21.4%). Only 14.3% had an improved impression, and 43.6% expressed that they had a similar impression of him before and after his announcement (see table 4).
Analyzed according to age groups, Leung received much more support than Tang in both the age groups of 18 to 29 and 30 to 49. Among the age group of 18 to 29, the respective rates of support of Leung and Tang were 30.1% and 12.8%, while among the age group of 30 to 49 were 33.1% and 13.2%. However, among respondents aged 50 or above, the difference of support between the two candidates narrowed; support for Leung was slightly higher than that for Tang, reaching 27.4% and 22.9% respectively (see table 5).
Professor Zhao Xinshu, director of HongCOMM Survey, HKBU, said: "With Leung and Tang each commanding roughly 30% and 17% support from Hong Kong residents, the 2012 election may turn out to be the first competitive major election in the court of public opinion in Hong Kong. It's good for the advancement of democracy in Hong Kong. It's good for the people of Hong Kong. If this competition in the court of public opinion can translate into genuine competition in the Election Committee of 1,200 electors who will cast votes for the Chief Executive, it would be even better."
As to who will eventually win the popularity contest at the end, Zhao said: "It's much too early to tell. The Election Committee will not cast their votes until next March. Many people are likely to change their mind, especially those who right now support neither of the two leading candidates. In our survey they are the majority, at roughly 53%. But the early lead of Leung in the public opinion may affect other public figures and organizations trying to decide which candidate to support publicly, and indirectly affect the real race in the Election Committee. Decision makers and interest groups often want to support the one who will win, and the public opinion, if verified by other polls done by other organizations, may make Leung look more like the one who will win."
Please refer to the attached document for the tables. For any enquiries, please contact Miss Fanny Kong at 61853722 or Miss Kathy Lam at 61415383.
HongCOMM Survey, Centre for Media and Communication Research, School of Communication, HKBU
Tel: 3411 8161/3411 8162
Fax: 3141 8156
Website: http://www.comm.hkbu.edu.hk/hongCOMM/